When Governors Seek Re-Election

The Center on the American Governor has found that across the country when modern incumbent governors have sought re-election, they have been successful just over 72% of the time. Over the last 65 years, the rate has increased almost every decade – from an average of 68.26% between 1948 and 1979 to an average of 79.22% from 1980 through 2013.

The full data set, including year, incumbent name, challenger name and winner (22-page PDF) is available here.

Years	Incumbents Running	Incumbents Winning	Success Rate
1948-2013	573	413	72.08%
1948-1979	318	211	68.26%
1980-2013	255	202	79.22%

The re-election success rate for incumbent governors has gone up almost every decade with the largest jumps occurring from 1980-1990 and from the 2000s to 2010-2013.

Decade	Incumbents Running	Incumbents Winning	Success Rate
1948-1959	128	85	66.41%
1960s	96	61	63.54%
1970s	94	65	69.15%
1980s	73	54	73.97%
1990s	89	72	80.90%
2000s	69	55	79.71%
2010-2013	24	21	87.50%

Re-election Rates by Region

Regionally, governors seeking re-election have had the greatest success in the Northeast where, since 1948, 76.32% have won their races. Even in the Southeast region where incumbents have most frequently lost, however, more than two-thirds – 68.97% -have been successful.

Region	Incumbents Running	Incumbents Winning	Success Rate
Northeast	153	117	76.47%
Southeast	97	60	68.97%
Midwest	162	116	71.60%
Southwest	52	36	69.23%
West	119	84	70.59%

Re-election Rates in New Jersey

In New Jersey, seven of the ten incumbent governors to run for re-election since 1948 have been successful. Those who lost were Governor William Cahill, defeated in the Republican primary in 1973, and Governors Jim Florio in 1993 and Jon Corzine in 2009, beaten by Christine Todd Whitman and Chris Christie respectively. Most recently, in 2013, Chris Christie won re-election, defeating challenger Barbara Buono.

Re-election Rates by Gender

Since 1970, 18 women have run for re-election as incumbent governors and 15 (83.33%) have been successful. Of these races, 14 took place in 1990 or later and 12 of them were successful. A woman incumbent governor running for re-election has not been defeated since Ann Richards (D-TX) lost to George W. Bush in 1994.

Gubernatorial Incumbent Success Rate by State, 1948-2013

State	Incumbents Running	Incumbents Winning	Success Rate
Alabama	7	3	0.43
Alaska	9	4	0.44
Arizona	16	13	0.81
Arkansas	21	16	0.76
California	10	9	0.90
Colorado	13	10	0.77
Connecticut	12	9	0.75
Delaware	10	6	0.60
Florida	9	5	0.55
Georgia	7	5	0.71
Hawaii	10	9	0.90
Idaho	10	8	0.80
Illinois	13	8	0.61
Indiana	6	5	0.83
Iowa	17	13	0.76
Kansas	15	10	0.67
Kentucky	5	4	0.80
Louisiana	7	4	0.57
Maine	11	9	0.82
Maryland	10	8	0.80
Massachusetts	16	9	0.56
Michigan	17	14	0.82
Minnesota	15	9	0.60
Mississippi	4	2	0.50
Missouri	7	4	0.57
Montana	10	6	0.60
Nebraska	14	10	0.71
Nevada	12	7	0.58
New Hampshire	23	18	0.78
New Jersey	10	7	0.70
New Mexico	11	6	0.54
New York	12	9	0.75
North Carolina	5	5	1.00
North Dakota	15	13	0.87
Ohio	13	8	0.61
Oklahoma	5	3	0.60
Oregon	11	7	0.64
Pennsylvania	5	5	1.00
Rhode Island	22	16	0.73
South Carolina	6	4	0.67
South Dakota	14	11	0.79
Tennessee	8	6	0.75
Texas	20	14	0.70
Utah	14	11	0.79
Vermont	22	21	0.95
Virginia	0	0	N/A
Washington	11	7	0.64
West Virginia	8	6	0.75
Wisconsin	16	11	0.69
Wyoming	9	6	0.67

Total	573	413	0.72

Gubernatorial Incumbent Success Rate by Year, 1948-2013

Year	Incumbents Running	Incumbents Winning	Success Rate
1948	24	12	0.50
1949	1	1	1.00
1950	20	15	0.75
1951	1	1	1.00
1952	21	16	0.76
1953	0	0	n/a
1954	19	12	0.63
1955	0	0	n/a
1956	20	15	0.75
1957	1	1	1.00
1958	20	11	0.55
1959	1	1	1.00
1960	14	8	0.57
1961	0	0	n/a
1962	28	15	0.54
1963	0	0	n/a
1964	15	12	0.80
1965	1	1	1.00
1966	24	15	0.62
1967	0	0	n/a
1968	14	10	0.71
1969	0	0	n/a
1970	25	17	0.68
1971	0	0	n/a
1972	11	7	0.64
1973	1	0	0
1974	23	17	0.74
1975	2	2	1.00
1976	8	5	0.62
1977	1	1	1.00
1978	23	16	0.70
1979	0	0	n/a
1980	12	7	0.58
1981	0	0	n/a
1982	25	19	0.76
1983	1	0	0
1984	6	4	0.67
1985	1	1	1.00
1986	18	15	0.83
1987	1	0	0
1988	9	8	0.89
1989	0	0	n/a
1990	23	17	0.74
1991	2	0	0
1992	4	4	1.00
1993	1	0	0
1994	23	17	0.74
1995	1	1	1.00
1996	7	7	1.00
1997	1	1	1.00
1998	25	23	0.92
1999	2	2	1.00
2000	6	5	0.83
2001	0	0	n/a
2002	16	12	0.75
2003	1	0	0
2004	8	4	0.5
2005	0	0	n/a
2006	27	25	0.93
2007	2	1	0.50
2008	8	8	1.00
2009	1	0	0
2010	14	11	0.79
2011	3	3	1.00
2012	6	6	1.00
2013	1	1	1.00

Note on Sources

Information on past governors is available at the National Governors Association Website, www.nga.org. Detailed election results from past campaigns are available at www.ourcampaigns.com. Many state archives also have websites with information about that state’s former governors.

Colin McDowell, a Rutgers University undergraduate assisting the Center on the American Governor as an Aresty Research Assistant in 2012 – 2013, was responsible for collecting and analyzing much of the data in this section

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